鲍威尔在2023年杰克逊霍尔会议上的演讲全文（中英对照）

鲍威尔在2023年杰克逊霍尔会议上的演讲全文（中英对照）

Good morning. At last year's Jackson Hole symposium, I delivered a brief, direct message. My remarks this year will be a bit longer, but the message is the same: It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so.

早上好。在去年的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上，我曾发表了一个简短而直接的讲话。我今年的演讲将稍长一些，但要传达的信息是一样的：将通胀降至2%的目标是美联储的职责，我们将致力于实现这一点。

We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.

在过去的一年里，我们极大地收紧了货币政策。尽管通胀率已经从最高点回落——这是一个可喜的发展——但仍然过高。我们准备在适当的情况下进一步提高利率，并打算将政策利率维持在一个限制性水平，直到我们确信通胀正在朝着我们的目标持续下降。

Today I willreviewour progress so far and discuss the outlook and the uncertainties we face as we pursue our dual mandate goals. I will conclude with a summary of what this means for policy. Given how far we have come, at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks.

今天，我将回顾我们迄今为止所取得的进展，并讨论我们在追求双重使命时所面临的前景和不确定性。最后，我将总结一下这对政策意味着什么。考虑到我们已经取得的进展，在即将召开的会议上，我们能够在评估新进数据以及不断变化的前景和风险时谨慎行事。

迄今为止的通胀进展

The ongoing episode of high inflation initially emerged from a collision between very strong demand and pandemic-constrained supply. By the time the Federal Open Market Committee raised the policy rate in March 2022, it was clear that bringing down inflation would depend on both the unwinding of the unprecedented pandemic-related demand and supply distortions and on our tightening of monetary policy, which would slow the growth of aggregate demand, allowing supply time to catch up. While these two forces are now working together to bring down inflation, the process still has a long way to go, even with the more favorable recent readings.

持续的高通胀最初是由异常强劲的需求与受疫情限制的供给相撞应运而生的。截止2022年3月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）提高政策利率之时，很明显，降低通胀既取决于消除与疫情相关的前所未有的需求和供给扭曲，也取决于我们收紧货币政策，因为这将减缓总需求的增长，使供给有时间迎头赶上。虽然这两股力量目前正在共同努力降低通胀，但这一过程仍有很长的路要走，即使最近的数据颇为有利。

On a 12-month basis, U.S. total, or "headline," PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation peaked at 7 percent in June 2022 and declined to 3.3 percent as of July, following a trajectory roughly in line with global trends (figure 1, panel A). The effects of Russia's war against Ukraine have been a primary driver of the changes in headline inflation around the world since early 2022. Headline inflation is what households and businesses experience most directly, so this decline is very good news. But food and energy prices are influenced by global factors that remain volatile, and can provide a misleading signal of where inflation is headed. In my remaining comments, I will focus on core PCE inflation, which omits the food and energy components.

同比来看，美国总体个人消费支出（PCE）通胀率在2022年6月达到7%的峰值，并在今年7月降至3.3%，大致与全球趋势一致（图1，面板A）。自2022年初以来，俄乌冲突的影响一直是全球总体通胀变化的主要驱动因素。总体通胀是家庭和企业最能直接感受到的，因此这一降幅是个非常好的消息。但食品和能源价格受到全球因素的影响，而这些因素仍不稳定，并可能会对通胀走向发出误导性信号。在我剩下的演讲中，我将重点关注核心PCE通胀，其中剔除了食品和能源部分。

On a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July (figure 1, panel B). The lower monthly readings for core inflation in June and July were welcome, but two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. We can't yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue or where underlying inflation will settle over coming quarters. Twelve-month core inflation is still elevated, and there is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability.

同比来看，核心PCE通胀率在2022年2月达到5.4%的峰值，并在今年7月逐渐下降至4.3%（图1，面板B）。6月和7月的月度核心通胀数据较低无疑是受欢迎的，但这两个月的好数据只是建立对通胀向目标持续下行信心的开始。我们还不知道这些较低的数据会持续到什么程度，也不知道未来几个季度潜在的通胀会在哪里稳定下来。12个月（同比）核心通胀率仍处于高位，要恢复物价稳定还有相当长的路要走。

To understand the factors that will likely drive further progress, it is useful to separately examine the three broad components of core PCE inflation—inflation for goods, for housing services, and for all other services, sometimes referred to as nonhousing services (figure 2).

为了理解可能推动通胀进一步发展的因素，我们有必要分别考察核心PCE通胀的三个主要组成部分——商品通胀、住房服务通胀和所有其他服务通胀，有时被称为非住房服务业（图2）。

Core goods inflation has fallen sharply, particularly for durable goods, as both tighter monetary policy and the slow unwinding of supply and demand dislocations are bringing it down. The motor vehicle sector provides a good illustration. Earlier in the pandemic, demand for vehicles rose sharply, supported by low interest rates, fiscal transfers, curtailedspending on in-person services, and shifts in preference away from using public transportation and from living in cities. But because of a shortage ofsemiconductors, vehicle supply actually fell. Vehicle prices spiked, and a large pool of pent-up demand emerged. As the pandemic and its effects have waned, production and inventories have grown, and supply has improved. At the same time, higher interest rates have weighed on demand. Interest rates on auto loans have nearly doubled since early last year, and customers report feeling the effect of higher rates on affordability. On net, motor vehicle inflation has declined sharply because of the combined effects of these supply and demand factors.

核心商品（尤其是耐用品）通胀已大幅下降，因为货币政策收紧以及供需错位的缓慢缓解正在拉低核心商品通胀。汽车分项就是一个很好的例子。在疫情早期，由于低利率、财政转移支付、面对面服务支出减少，以及人们不再倾向于使用公共交通工具和居住在城市，对车辆的需求急剧上升。但由于半导体的短缺，汽车供给实际上下降了。因此，汽车价格飙升，大量被压抑的需求开始出现。随着疫情及其影响的减弱，生产和库存有所增加，供给相应改善。与此同时，更高的利率也抑制了需求。自去年初以来，汽车贷款利率几乎翻了一番。此外，消费者报告称，利率上升对他们的负担能力产生了影响。总的来说，由于这些供给和需求因素的综合影响，机动车辆的通胀率急剧下降。

Similar dynamics are playing out for core goods inflation overall. As they do, the effects of monetary restraint should show through more fully over time. Core goods prices fell the past two months, but on a 12-month basis, core goods inflation remains well above its pre-pandemic level. Sustained progress is needed, and restrictive monetary policy is called for to achieve that progress.

整体上看，核心商品通胀也呈现出类似的态势。随着时间的推移，货币政策紧缩的效果应该会更充分地显现出来。核心商品价格在过去两个月有所下降，但同比增速仍远高于大流行前的水平。持续的进展是必要的，为了实现这一进展，需要采取限制性货币政策。

In the highly interest-sensitive housing sector, the effects of monetary policy became apparent soon after liftoff. Mortgage rates doubled over the course of 2022, causing housing starts and sales to fall and house price growth to plummet. Growth in market rents soon peaked and then steadily declined (figure 3).

在对利率高度敏感的房地产行业，货币政策的效果在加息不久之后就已显现出来。在2022年期间，抵押贷款利率翻了一番，导致房屋开工率和销售量下降，房价涨幅暴跌。市场租金的增长很快见顶，然后稳步下降（图3）。

Measured housing services inflation lagged these changes, as is typical, but has recently begun to fall. This inflation metric reflects rents paid by all tenants, as well as estimates of the equivalent rents that could be earned from homes that are owner occupied.4 Because leases turn over slowly, it takes time for a decline in market rent growth to work its way into the overall inflation measure. The market rent slowdown has only recently begun to show through to that measure. The slowing growth in rents for new leases over roughly the past year can be thought of as "in the pipeline" and will affect measured housing services inflation over the coming year. Going forward, if market rent growth settles near pre-pandemic levels, housing services inflation should decline toward its pre-pandemic level as well. We will continue to watch the market rent data closely for a signal of theupside and downside risks to housing services inflation.

PCE指数所衡量的住房服务通胀滞后于这些市场变化，但最近也开始下降。这一通胀指标反映了所有租户支付的租金，以及对自住房屋可能赚取的等效租金的估计。由于租约周转缓慢，市场租金增速的下降需要一段时间才能影响到整体通胀指标。市场租金放缓直到最近才开始体现在这一指标上。过去一年左右的新租金增长放缓可以被视为"正在酝酿中"，并将影响未来一年的住房服务通胀。展望未来，如果市场租金增长稳定在疫情前的水平附近，住房服务通胀也应该下降到疫情前的水平。我们将继续密切关注市场租金数据，以寻找住房服务通胀上行和下行风险的信号。

The final category, nonhousing services, accounts for over half of the core PCE index and includes a broad range of services, such as health care, food services, transportation, and accommodations. Twelve-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff. Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined, however, which is encouraging. Part of the reason for the modest decline of nonhousing services inflation so far is that many of these services were less affected by global supply chain bottlenecks and are generally thought to be less interest sensitive than other sectors such as housing or durable goods. Production of these services is also relatively labor intensive, and the labor market remains tight. Given the size of this sector, some further progress here will be essential to restoring price stability. Over time, restrictive monetary policy will help bring aggregate supply and demand back into better balance, reducing inflationary pressures in this key sector.

最后一大类，即非住房服务，占核心PCE的一半以上，包括各类广泛的服务业，如医疗保健，食品服务，交通和住宿。自加息以来，该分项的12个月（同比）通胀率一直在横盘。不过，过去3个月和6个月的通胀率有所下降，这令人鼓舞.............

原文转载：https://fashion.shaoqun.com/a/1471124.html

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